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Journal Articles Frontiers in Marine Science Year : 2019

Observational Needs Supporting Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Forecasting: From the Global Ocean to Regional and Coastal Systems

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Michael Jacox
  • Function : Author
Chris Bowler
Maria Kavanaugh
  • Function : Author
Daniel Barrie
  • Function : Author
Wei Cheng
Daniela Dias
  • Function : Author
Damien Eveillard
Lionel Guidi
Daniele Iudicone
Nicole Lovenduski
  • Function : Author
Janet Nye
  • Function : Author
Ivonne Ortiz
  • Function : Author
Douglas Pirhalla
  • Function : Author
Mercedes Pozo Buil
  • Function : Author
Scott Sheridan
  • Function : Author
Samantha Siedlecki
  • Function : Author
Aneesh Subramanian
  • Function : Author
Albert Hermann
  • Function : Author
Terrence Joyce
  • Function : Author
Mark Merrifield
  • Function : Author
Arthur Miller
  • Function : Author
Fabrice Not

Abstract

Many coastal areas host rich marine ecosystems and are also centers of economic activities, including fishing, shipping and recreation. Due to the socioeconomic and ecological importance of these areas, predicting relevant indicators of the ecosystem state on sub-seasonal to interannual timescales is gaining increasing attention. Depending on the application, forecasts may be sought for variables and indicators spanning physics (e.g., sea level, temperature, currents), chemistry (e.g., nutrients, oxygen, pH), and biology (from viruses to top predators). Many components of the marine ecosystem are known to be influenced by leading modes of climate variability, which provide a physical basis for predictability. However, prediction capabilities remain limited by the lack of a clear understanding of the physical and biological processes involved, as well as by insufficient observations for forecast initialization and verification. The situation is further complicated by the influence of climate change on ocean conditions along coastal areas, including sea level rise, increased stratification, and shoaling of oxygen minimum zones. Observations are thus vital to all aspects of marine forecasting: statistical and/or dynamical model development, forecast initialization, and forecast validation, each of which has different observational requirements, which may be also specific to the study region. Here, we use examples from United States (U.S.) coastal applications to identify and describe the key requirements for an observational network that is needed to facilitate improved process understanding, as well as for sustaining operational ecosystem forecasting. We also describe new holistic observational approaches, e.g., approaches based on acoustics, inspired by Tara Oceans or by landscape ecology, which have the potential to support and expand ecosystem modeling and forecasting activities by bridging global and local observations.
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Dates and versions

hal-02316446 , version 1 (08-01-2021)

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Antonietta Capotondi, Michael Jacox, Chris Bowler, Maria Kavanaugh, Patrick Lehodey, et al.. Observational Needs Supporting Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Forecasting: From the Global Ocean to Regional and Coastal Systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2019, 6, pp.623. ⟨10.3389/fmars.2019.00623⟩. ⟨hal-02316446⟩
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